A new bet on Polymarket, the world's largest decentralized prediction market platform, has sparked a lot of interest. It is about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
“A new account just put more than $145,000 into Netanyahu out by March 31. Created less than 2 hours ago, and it started with this bet. Potential payout: nearly $4,000,000 (about ₹37 crore),” wrote a social media user while sharing a screenshot of the bet.
The website shows that the user (dududududu22) put roughly $170,000 (nearly ₹1.6 crore) on Netanyahu being “out” soon. The market currently disagrees.
Odds have moved against them, and they are sitting on over $10,000 in losses. With the 31 March deadline just two weeks away, the first bet is looking very unlikely to pay off.
On Polymarket, "out" in a political context standardly means the person is no longer in their position. It can be through resignation, by losing an election or by being voted out by parliament. However, it may also mean a coup or any other reason they lose power.
Does ‘out’ mean death?
If the market were specifically about Netanyahu's death, it would almost always be worded explicitly. Polymarket is precise with its wording because the resolution criteria have to be unambiguous.
However, given the ongoing Israel-Iran war, death is presumably one of the scenarios the market's "Yes" bettors may have in mind. If Benjamin Netanyahu is dead, it also means he is "out" of power. The contract will pay out if he leaves power for any reason.
This is an election year for Israel. The polls must happen by October 2026. But, given the ongoing war situation, it is unlikely to happen anytime soon. So, if Netanyahu is “out” by 31 March, it’s definitely not because of election results.
What is Polymarket?
Polymarket is a US-based prediction market platform where users bet real money on the outcome of real-world events. They bet on elections, wars, economic indicators and more.
Polymarket gained mainstream attention during the 2024 US presidential election. It correctly predicted Donald Trump's victory ahead of most traditional polls.
The platform has notable political connections. Donald Trump Jr, the son of the US president, has joined Polymarket's advisory board. His venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, made a strategic investment of double-digit millions in the company.
Six accounts on Polymarket profited $1 million while Iranians were being hit by air strikes, according to analytics firm Bubblemaps SA.
Most of those bets were placed just hours before bombs dropped on 28 February. The accounts were created in February 2026 itself.
No wrongdoing has been proven. But, the timing raised serious questions about whether some bettors had advance knowledge.
Polymarket is effectively banned in India. Real-money online games are banned under the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025.
Benjamin Netanyahu: Death rumours
Rumours have been circulating on social media, claiming that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has died. The Israeli Prime Minister's Office has called the reports "fake news" and "disinformation".
Netanyahu himself addressed the rumours in a video posted on his official social media account. He was seen at a cafe in Jerusalem. He jokingly said, "I am dying… for a coffee."
Israel's Ambassador to India, Reuven Azar, has separately confirmed Netanyahu is "very much alive". He has also claimed that the cafe video is authentic.
However, social media is still abuzz with conspiracy theories. Many claim that the latest videos are from the pandemic times. They wonder how the PM and the people of Israel can behave so merrily when the country is at war.
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