Only a year ago, reports about Myanmar were rife with speculation that the Tatmadaw, the Burmese term for the military, might be on its last legs.
Today, five years since the junta toppled a democratically elected government on February 1, 2021 and set off a bloody civil war, that talk is all but over.
"The early-2024 speculation about regime collapse is clearly all in the rearview mirror," said Anthony Davis, an analyst with the Janes defense and security publications.
Over the past year, the military has reclaimed key towns and trade routes in the northeast that had fallen to a trio of armed groups. It has also rebuilt battalions depleted by death and desertion and conducted phased elections, which concluded on January 25.
"They are in the best position since the coup,” said Kyaw Htet Aung, head of conflict, peace and security research at the Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar (ISP-Myanmar).
Analysts attribute much of the junta's resurgence to China.
Human Rights Watch's Elaine Pearson on Myanmar election
To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video
China and Russia step in
Before and after the coup, Beijing cultivated ties with both the Tatmadaw and the armed ethnic minority groups that dominate the country's rugged borderlands with China, helping to arm them both.
But after a major offensive by three of those groups in late 2023 and early 2024 that routed the military in the northeast, Beijing's support shifted sharply toward the junta.
Following Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to the capital, Naypyitaw, in April 2024, Beijing pressured ethnic armed groups to halt support for post‑coup militias, restricted border trade with those defying its wishes and forced two groups into ceasefires and partial territorial withdrawals.
China has "swung very, very forcefully to backing this military regime precisely because they were afraid it could in fact collapse," said Matthew Arnold, a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics (LSE). "The amount of Chinese support to the junta has become very significant."
China is engaging with both sides in Myanmar's civil war
Davis added that Russia has also been key in turning the military into a more effective fighting force by helping to improve its battlefield tactics and make its many branches work better together.
"You've got Russian advisers in Naypyitaw and in the field. There is also a Myanmar-Russia Joint Counterterrorism Committee, which is headed by significant figures on both sides, and which plays an important coordinating role," he said.
The Myanmar military has also imported drone technology from China and Russia, allowing the Tatmadaw to erase, if not completely reverse, the advantage rebel groups once held in the use of drones.
Myanmar's military rulers have also launched an aggressive conscription drive since mid-2024, which has bolstered the military's once dwindling numbers. Davis said it has added some 90,000 new, if often ill-trained and unmotivated, soldiers to its ranks.
No end in sight to fighting
None of that, though, seems to be bringing Myanmar closer to the end of a civil war that has already killed, by some estimates, at least 92,000 people and displaced more than 3.3 million, according to the United Nations.
Conflict data tracked by London's International Institute for Strategic Studies show a gradual drop in violence since a peak in late 2023. But it still counted more than 800 clashes, explosions or strikes in December alone.
Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), a US-based group, also counted a record 40 "atrocities" by the military — attacks on civilian targets that killed 10 or more people — in 2025.
The Tatmadaw still controls less than half the country, and had to cancel voting in many districts during this year's election. The military‑backed Union Solidarity and Development Party claimed victory on Sunday, though the UN and several Western governments have dismissed the election as a sham.
Scam factory: Behind Asia's cyber slavery
Resistance holds on
Despite the election and the junta's gains, fighting continues across multiple fronts, including in the Bamar heartland in central Myanmar. Resistance forces remain fragmented but are showing signs of stronger coordination.
In December, 19 People's Defense Forces (PDFs) formed the Spring Revolution Alliance, claiming up to 15,000 fighters and seeking cooperation with larger ethnic armed groups.
Earlier this month, several PDFs launched what Davis called an "unprecedented" wave of coordinated attacks on military bases in Bago. Although the military pushed them back, he said the operation showed meaningful progress in coordination between rebel groups.
"The division into separate wars has not ended, but there is an awareness that coordination needs to be accelerated," said Davis.
The military had hoped the election would lessen the violence. LSE's Arnold, though, remains skeptical, saying he's been "amazed" that armed groups haven't started defecting to the junta in whole or even in part after five bloody years, even if only for promises of financial reward.
"None of that has been happening in Myanmar, and to me what that means is that there's still a huge amount of determination to get rid of the military once and for all," he said.
A few have struck fragile ceasefires with the junta, Arnold added.
Rohingya refugees in India live in fear of deportation
Coming year will be critical
Five years after the coup, analysts agree that neither side looks poised to win or lose on the battlefield anytime soon, nor to back down from the fight.
"They don't see other alternative ways, like talking," said ISP-Myanmar's Kyaw Htet Aung. "They are still thinking they can get [control] through a military victory."
In the year ahead, he said he'll be looking to see how the fighting evolves in the center of the country, where the junta still holds most ground. Arnold said he'll be watching China and how much further it will be willing to go to prop up a deeply unpopular regime.
ACLED's Davis said since Wang Yi's 2024 visit, the Tatmadaw "has addressed issues of quantity and quality in a very focused manner."
He added that the civil war may hinge most on how much the resistance groups can further coordinate their operations and adopt the sort of fiber-optic first-person-view drones that have transformed the war in Ukraine.
"So, the Tatmadaw is not going to lose this war," he said. "The question is, can they possibly win it? The answer will depend on what the resistance is able to achieve in the coming year."
